Asia–U.S. Container Ship Estimate & Port Traffic Analysis

May 14th, 2025

Overview

The number of container ships operating between Asia and the U.S. varies with season, port

congestion, and schedules. Here is a structured estimate based on 2023–2024 trade volumes and

typical vessel capacities.

Key Estimation Factors

- Annual Volume: ~22 million TEUs (2023, Trans-Pacific Eastbound)

- Avg. Vessel Size: 12,000 TEU (conservative)

- Utilization Rate: 90%

- Avg. Voyages/Ship: 17 single voyages/year

Calculation Summary

1. Adjusted Volume: 22M TEUs / 0.9 = 24.4M TEUs (required capacity)

2. Voyages Needed: 24.4M / 12,000 = ~2,033 voyages

3. Ships Required: 2,033 / 17 = ~120 ships

→ Estimated ~120 ships needed for regular service.

→ Accounting for downtime: ~140–160 ships in total rotation.

Port Pair Breakdown (2023–2024 Estimates)

Shanghai → LA/LB: 3.5M TEUs (~30–35 ships)

Ningbo → LA/LB: 2.8M TEUs (~25–30 ships)

Yantian → LA/LB: 2.0M TEUs (~20–25 ships)

Qingdao → LA/LB: 1.5M TEUs (~15–20 ships)

Shanghai → NY/NJ: 1.2M TEUs (~12–15 ships)

Ningbo → NY/NJ: 1.0M TEUs (~10–12 ships)

Yantian → SAV/CHS: 0.8M TEUs (~8–10 ships)

Busan → LA/LB: 1.0M TEUs (~10–12 ships)

Busan → NY/NJ: 0.7M TEUs (~7–9 ships)

Singapore → LA/LB: 0.6M TEUs (~6–8 ships)

Singapore → NY/NJ: 0.5M TEUs (~5–7 ships)

Shanghai → Houston: 0.4M TEUs (~4–6 ships)

Ningbo → Houston: 0.3M TEUs (~3–5 ships)

Key Takeaways

- Shanghai–Los Angeles remains the most trafficked route.

- East Coast ports are growing in traffic.

- Gulf ports like Houston are emerging strategically.

- Expect tight equipment and booking windows post-tariff reduction